Most national pundits see Republican Greg Walden as a lock to win an 11th term representing Oregon’s 2nd District in the U.S. House.

Political analysts Charlie Cook, Larry J. Sabato and Nat Gonzales all have Walden rated as “safe” for reelection. Yet the grip he and the GOP have on the district shows signs of slipping.

The district is larger than 29 states and primarily conservative. But Oregon political analyst Bill Lunch said that has not curtailed energized Democrats this year, with seven vying in the primary for their party’s nomination to challenge Walden.

“I think that reflects the level of unhappiness among active voters with the Trump administration,” Lunch said. “And we’re seeing that all over the country.”

The U.S. has about 7,400 state legislative seats, and many of those state level offices are effectively held by one party, he said, predominately Republican or Democrat.

“But we’re seeing Democrats filing for lots and lots of seats, which (had been) effectively out of reach for them,” he said.

Republicans and political insiders considered the 18th congressional district in Pennsylvania out of reach for Democrats. The Cook Political Report even rated it the same as Oregon’s 2nd — solidly Republican. Yet Democrat Conor Lamb then squeaked out a win in the March 13 special election against Republican Rick Saccone in a race where there was no incumbent.

The Pennsylvania 18th consists largely of southern suburbs of Pittsburgh, but there are rural swaths on its eastern side. Voters in the rural parts shifted Democrat, but Lunch said that shift away from Republicans in the suburban areas was “massive.”

Using the 18th as a model for what could take place in the Oregon 2nd, Lunch said Walden could run into trouble in parts of Bend and Medford. And Hood River, Walden’s home county, is firmly blue. The latest voter registration statistics from the Oregon Secretary of State show Dems have almost twice the votes there as Republicans.

Walden is less likely to run into trouble around Klamath Falls in the south or Pendleton to the north. But a “slow transformation” is coming over the district, Lunch said. The high-tech companies setting up shop along the Columbia River bring employees that tend to be Democrats. Local governments, including Umatilla and Morrow counties, want those workers to move into the Oregon, buy homes and get on the tax rolls.

Hood River County, then, could be on the leading edge of change or just an outlier as other counties in the Gorge remain Republican strongholds.

Morrow County Commissioner Jim Doherty said he also sees political change in the district and thinks a Democrat could get some traction. Walden’s views still represent the majority of voices in the district he said, but this year his margin of victory could drop to 60 percent, maybe lower.

Lunch said Walden’s margin taking a significant drop would not be a surprise, but “it is a real stretch to see him losing.”

Walden’s closest margin was 61.2 percent in 1998, the first time he ran for Congress. Two years ago he won with almost 72 percent. A 12-point drop would show significant erosion of support, maybe enough to embolden Democrats and donors in the next election cycle.

Democrats nationwide have the opportunity to pick up as many as 110 seats in the U.S. House. But Lunch said that’s not going to happen.

“I can see them picking up 50 seats,” he said, in a wave akin to 2010 when Republicans gained 61.

In 80-90 percent of the races, he said, Republicans have better funding. Federal Elections Commission campaign financial summaries show Walden has more than $3.1 million cash, while Jamie McLeod-Skinner leads the Democrats with just $37,000.

Some of the Dems have not even met the $5,000 threshold to report finances. Walden has spent more than $930,000 already this election cycle, about six times as much as the entire field of seven Democrats has raised.

Walden came into office as a moderate Republican, but how moderate he is today is debatable. Walden is firmly ensconced in Republican leadership, supporting both House Speaker Paul Ryan and President Donald Trump. Walden supported the heath care bill that dropped coverage for pre-existing conditions after he said at Oregon townhalls that he would not.

That kind of back-tracking should give challengers openings to attack. But Umatilla County Commissioner George Murdock said the emotions surrounding the health care vote along with tax reform have subsided to some degree, even if the issues have yet to play out. Murdock, who is plugged into the area’s politics, said the race has one overriding theme: No one is talking about it.

For challengers, silence does not bode well, and Walden’s name recognition alone gives him a huge advantage in the race. Walden’s seniority and leadership position in the House also help him to deliver on key issues, such as more funding for wildfires in the budget that passed the House on Thursday. And the needs in the district vary so much from one area to the next that single-issue candidates cannot cobble together a majority.

Still, as Lunch noted, nothing in politics is certain.

The seven Democrats running for the 2nd District took the stage in Pendleton for a forum on Friday, in which they focused on attacking Walden rather than each other. Ballots land in mailboxes in about five weeks, and the primary takes place May 15.