It wasn’t easy deciding on the five best over/under bets for the final week of the NFL regular season.

Many teams are either resting starters for the playoffs or aiming for a better draft pick in 2024. But don’t count on the New England Patriots being one of the non-playoff teams looking for a higher selection in next year’s draft. (And not saying teams tank in the NFL …)

The Patriots might be saying farewell to their legendary coach. Bill Belichick has dodged questions the past few weeks about his future in New England.

Also, expect a handful of teams to try their best this weekend because not all the divisions and playoff spots have been spoken for.

Here are the five best over/under bets for Week 18 (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).

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1. Steelers (9–7) at Ravens (13–3)

• Over/Under: 35.5
• Prediction: Over

Maybe I’m missing something here, because this total line seems too low for a game that means so much for the Pittsburgh Steelers and very little for the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers might drop 30-plus points against the Ravens’ backup players, especially with how well Mason Rudolph has played since becoming the starter nearly three weeks ago. Ravens coach John Harbaugh announced that Lamar Jackson won’t play in Week 18, which might be the case for several other starters. Baltimore already secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed and Pittsburgh needs a win and some help to advance as a wild-card team. With Rudolph as the starter, the Steelers have cracked 30 points twice during the back-to-back victories vs. the Seattle Seahawks and Cincinnati Bengals. Ravens backup Tyler Huntley will start in place of Jackson, and could give the Steelers fits. Huntley made the Pro Bowl last year and helped the Ravens make the playoffs after Jackson missed the final five games of the 2022 season.

2. Texans (9–7) at Colts (9–7)

• Over/Under: 47.5
• Prediction: Over

The Indianapolis Colts continued their streak of scoring 20 points or more in every home game this season during last week’s 23–20 victory against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Colts need one more stellar home performance to advance to the postseason, but it won’t be easy against the Houston Texans’ defense, which shut down the Tennessee Titans, 26–3, last week. Gardner Minshew has had his highs and lows since taking over for the injured Anthony Richardson, but Minshew is capable of lighting up the scoreboard on any given week, with a balanced attack that features wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and running back Jonathan Taylor. C.J. Stroud has also had many high-scoring games throughout a dominant rookie season in Houston. Stroud didn’t need to carry the Texans in last week’s victory, but he played well after missing the prior two games due to a concussion. Expect these AFC South foes to score many points with so much on the line. The winner will clinch a postseason spot and could also capture the AFC South title if the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Titans. 

3. Jets (6–10) at Patriots (4–12)

• Over/Under: 30.5
• Prediction: Under

These two teams will miss the postseason, but there’s plenty of intrigue with this possibly being the last game Belichick coaches for the Patriots. Expect the Patriots to do everything they can to ensure Belichick goes out on a winning note against a team he’s beaten several times in the past 24 years. The Jets, who have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, probably won’t put up much of a fight during the finale of one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history. The Jets’ latest embarrassing performance occurred in a 37–20 loss against the Cleveland Browns in Week 17. Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe could generate enough points to hurt this under bet, but again, the Jets have struggled to find the end zone. Don’t be surprised if the Patriots beat the Jets, 20–6, for Belichick’s potential farewell game. 

4. Bears (7–9) at Packers (8–8)

• Over/Under: 43.5
• Prediction: Over

The Chicago Bears have shown plenty of improvement in the past five weeks, despite being knocked out of the playoff race a long time ago. The Bears have scored 27 points or more in three of their past four games, including the 37–17 victory against the Atlanta Falcons last week. The quarterback-wide receiver duo of Justin Fields and DJ Moore will likely give the Green Bay Packers’ defense plenty of fits in what might be the last game for defensive coordinator Joe Barry, whose unit is allowing 21.3 points per game and 344 yards per game. The Packers, who need a victory to clinch a wild-card spot, also have a surging offense with first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love. Green Bay scored 33 points in each of its past two victories, which were against the Carolina Panthers and Minnesota Vikings. 

5. Bills (10–6) at Dolphins (11–5)

• Over/Under: 49.5
• Prediction: Under

This was the toughest bet of the week, but going under was the right move because of the Miami Dolphins’ lengthy list of injuries to key players. Running back Raheem Mostert and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle will likely miss their second consecutive game. Both were missed in last week’s lopsided 56–19 loss to the Ravens. Also, the Buffalo Bills’ defense gave Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense plenty of fits during their Week 4 meeting—a 48–20 victory for the Bills. The Dolphins’ defense could also have trouble containing Josh Allen & Co. after the season-ending injury to edge rusher Bradley Chubb. But Allen has struggled against the Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers the past two games. Perhaps these two teams could go off because there’s so much on the line—the winner will take the AFC East. But neither side has played well in recent weeks and notable injuries could be an issue. 

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